The recent 7.5-magnitude earthquake recorded in the Drake Passage—one of the strongest in the recent history of the Magallanes and Chilean Antarctic Region—activated emergency protocols across various localities in the southernmost part of the country. In Puerto Williams, where the tremor was felt for several minutes, the community’s reaction was swift but also revealed significant challenges regarding institutional coordination and territorial anticipation.
At approximately 10:17 a.m., fifteen minutes after the onset of the seismic movement, tsunami evacuation sirens began to sound. This delay between the initial issuance by the National Seismological Center and its local retransmission generated uncertainty among part of the population. Although no material damage was ultimately reported, the initial confusion tested both response capacities and the clarity of existing protocols.
In the face of this situation, local residents took the initiative and began an autonomous evacuation toward designated safe zones—specifically Teniente Muñoz Street and the Cape Horn International Center (CHIC). The latter was enabled as a temporary shelter thanks to the municipality’s rapid response and support from firefighters and healthcare personnel. The response was widely regarded as effective, especially considering that Magallanes is not a region typically accustomed to seismic events.
The experience in Puerto Williams highlights the need to strengthen tools that allow anticipation not only of the physical impact of such phenomena but also of their social and organizational dimensions. Within this context, the CASA model (Complex Analysis for Socio-environmental Adaptation), developed by the Complex Society Lab, emerges as a key innovation for addressing such critical events.
CASA is a territorial analysis model designed to assess community resilience to critical events by incorporating various social dimensions—such as health, education, governance, access to services, and support networks—within a relational structure. Grounded in network science and large-scale data, the model enables simulation of how a crisis might ripple through the social fabric, helping identify the most vulnerable components of the system.
In remote settings with extreme climatic conditions, such as Puerto Williams, CASA provides predictive capabilities that support decision-makers in developing differentiated strategies. Thanks to its universal yet adaptable architecture, the model allows for the identification not only of structural weaknesses but also of community strengths that may prove crucial during emergencies. In fact, preliminary simulations of the model applied to Puerto Williams have demonstrated how disruptions in certain sectors—such as transportation, education, or healthcare—could trigger cascading effects across other social dimensions, even anticipating potential areas of tension or conflict.
The Drake Passage earthquake should not be seen merely as an isolated natural event but rather as a wake-up call underscoring the urgency of robust information and coordination systems. The experience yielded valuable insights into the importance of community organization, as well as the need to reinforce institutional response mechanisms.
In times of uncertainty, tools like CASA help shift risk management from reactive responses to proactive anticipation—allowing us to move from reaction to foresight in territorial governance.
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